Unembedded Opinion

Here's an interesting summary of the politics of the war, at the Daily Brew. Basically, the Republicans know if they get blamed for losing the Iraq war, there is absolutely nothing else to run on, and they lose elections for at least as generation.

Democrats, on the other hand, are simply not adequate to this moment. Where they could conclusively bury the GOP and take over the policy agenda, they probably don't have what it takes.

The reality is that the Republicans told the American public a pack of lies to start an aggressive and illegal war of choice. Then they botched the job in every way imaginable, making sure that what was already likely to be a disaster would certainly become one. Now they are deliberately prolonging their folly, jacking up the costs in blood and treasure, all in a desperate effort to avoid paying the political price for admitting their failure. A moment’s reflection makes it perfectly clear why. The Republican Party can survive losing the war in Iraq. They cannot survive getting blamed for it.

I posed this question to a few political operative friends of mine, at least two of whom are Republicans, at lunch. “If the idea that the Republicans cannot be trusted with matters of National Security hardens into conventional wisdom, how exactly does the Republican Party ever win another national election?” There was no dissent. If the Republicans lose their edge on national security, the federal government is going to look like it did during the Roosevelt era for a decade, maybe two.

Karl Rove Republicans know this. They realize they cannot lose the war in Iraq and remain politically viable. They also realize that we are long past the time that anything that looks like a “victory” is going to be salvaged from the sands of Mesopotamia. So the battle is now over who is going to take the blame for the inevitable loss. And, as usual, the Republicans are playing three dimensional chess with lasers while the Democrats are pushing wooden checker pieces around the wrong board.

The way to play this isn't very difficult or complicated, but it requires a message discipline the Dems don't have.

If the Democratic leadership could look further than five minutes ahead, they wouldn’t argue that the war is already lost (even though it is). They wouldn’t argue that that the military isn’t making any real progress in Iraq (even though they aren’t). Nor would they argue that Bush and the Republicans are only prolonging the war so they can pass it on to Bush’s successor (even though they are).

Instead, Democrats should repeat into the camera at every single opportunity that the Bush administration’s sole strategic objective in continuing the war in Iraq is to avoid being blamed for losing it. By putting it this way, even the American public will understand what is going on. And when the time comes to pay the political price for this awful mess, the Republicans won’t be able to pass the bill on to someone else.

My prediction: The Dems will talk themselves out of the possibility of playing from a position of strength, and will hope to just squeak out a victory in 08. Does anyone seriously want to bet against that?